Oral Azacitidine for Maintenance Treatment of Acute Myeloid Leukaemia After Induction Therapy: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Celgene) of oral azacitidine (ONUREG), as part of the Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, to submit evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral azacitidine for maintenance treatment of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) after induction therapy compared with watch-and-wait plus best supportive care (BSC) and midostaurin. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre+, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarises the company submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review on the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. In the QUAZAR AML-001 trial, oral azacitidine significantly improved overall survival (OS) versus placebo: median OS gain of 9.9 months (24.7 months versus 14.8 months; hazard ratio (HR) 0.69 (95% CI 0.55-0.86), p < 0.001). The median time to relapse was also better for oral azacitidine, and the incidences of TEAEs were similar for the two arms. The company excluded two of the comparators listed in the scope, low-dose cytarabine and subcutaneous azacitidine, informed only by clinical expert opinion, leaving only best supportive care (BSC) and midostaurin for the FLT3-ITD and/or FLT3-TKD (FLT3 mutation)-positive subgroup. An ITC comparing oral azacitidine to midostaurin as maintenance therapy in the appropriate subgroup demonstrated that the OS and relapse-free survival (RFS) HRs were favourable for oral azacitidine when compared with midostaurin. However, in the only available trial of midostaurin as maintenance treatment in AML that was used for this ITC, subjects were not randomised at the maintenance phase, but at induction, which posed a substantial risk of bias. The revised and final probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) presented by the company, including a commercial arrangement, was £32,480 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for oral azacitidine versus watch-and-wait plus BSC. Oral azacitidine was dominant versus midostaurin in the FLT-3 subgroup. The ERG's concerns included the approach of modelling haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), the generalisability of the population and the number of cycles of consolidation therapy pre-treatment in the QUAZAR AML-001 trial to UK clinical practice, and uncertainty in the relapse utility. The revised and final ERG base case resulted in a similar probabilistic ICER of £33,830 per QALY gained versus watch-and-wait plus BSC, but with remaining uncertainty. Oral azacitidine remained dominant versus midostaurin in the FLT-3 subgroup. After the second NICE appraisal committee meeting, the NICE Appraisal Committee recommended oral azacitidine (according to the commercial arrangement), within its marketing authorisation, as an option for maintenance treatment for AML in adults who are in complete remission, or complete remission with incomplete blood count recovery, after induction therapy with or without consolidation treatment, and cannot have or do not want HSCT.

Risk factors for cognitive impairment in radically treated stage III NSCLC: Secondary findings of the NVALT-11 study.

AIM: To identify risk factors for self-reported cognitive impairment in radically treated stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Cognitive functioning was assessed using the EORTC-QLQ-C30 at seven pre-specified time points in the phase III NVALT-11 trial (observation versus prophylactic cranial irradiation [PCI] in stage III NSCLC treated with chemo-radiotherapy ± surgery). Cognition was analyzed as binary (impairment or not) and continuous outcome, respectively, using generalized estimating equation (GEE) before and after multiple imputation. A score < 75 was defined as cognitive impairment. A mean difference by < 10, 10-<20, ≥ 20 points was regarded as of no, moderate, and large clinical effect, respectively. We categorized the cognitive impairment into four types based on changes over time: sustained, reversible, recurring, and alternating. RESULTS: In the no-PCI arm, 43/84 [51.2%] reported cognitive impairment at least once, of which 31.4% were sustained, 25.7% reversible, 28.6% recurring, and 14.3% alternating. Results were similar in the PCI arm. Cognitive functioning at baseline was comparable in two arms and a score < 75 was a significant risk factor with large effect for subsequent cognitive impairment (no-PCI: ß = -23.30, p < 0.001; PCI arm: ß = -22.34, p < 0.001; All: ß = -23.47, p < 0.001). Younger age (≤60y), squamous histology, and PCI were risk factors without clinical relevance (ß > -10, p < 0.05). Cognitive functioning declined over time (ß = -0.26, p = 0.001) except for patients with cognitive impairment at baseline (ß = 0.141, p = 0.33). CONCLUSION: Cognitive impairment is dynamic over time with four types. Baseline cognitive impairment (score < 75) is the most important risk factor for subsequent cognitive impairment in stage III NSCLC. Note: This work has been partly reported as an oral presentation at the ESTRO 2021 meeting (OC-0176).

Fenfluramine for Treating Dravet Syndrome: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

Fenfluramine, tradename Fintepla®, was appraised within the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal (STA) process as Technology Appraisal 808. Within the STA process, the company (Zogenix International) provided NICE with a written submission and a mathematical health economic model, summarising the company's estimates of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of fenfluramine for patients with Dravet syndrome (DS). This company submission (CS) was reviewed by an evidence review group (ERG) independent of NICE. The ERG, Kleijnen Systematic Reviews in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre, produced an ERG report. This paper presents a summary of the ERG report and the development of the NICE guidance. The CS included a systematic review of the evidence for fenfluramine. From this review the company identified and presented evidence from two randomised trials (Study 1 and Study 1504), an open-label extension study (Study 1503) and 'real world evidence' from a prospective and retrospective study. Both randomised trials were conducted in patients up to 18 years of age with DS, whose seizures were incompletely controlled with previous anti-epileptic drugs. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed to compare fenfluramine with cannabidiol plus clobazam. There was no evidence of a difference between any doses of fenfluramine and cannabidiol in the mean convulsive seizure frequency (CSF) rate during treatment. However, fenfluramine increased the number of patients achieving ≥ 50% reduction in CSF frequency from baseline compared to cannabidiol. The company used an individual-patient state-transition model (R version 3.5.2) to model cost-effectiveness of fenfluramine. The CSF and convulsive seizure-free days were estimated using patient-level data from the placebo arm of the fenfluramine registration studies. Subsequently, a treatment effect of either fenfluramine or cannabidiol was applied. Utility values for the economic model were obtained by mapping Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory data from the registration studies to EuroQol-5D-3L Youth (EQ-5D-Y-3L). The company included caregiver utilities in their base-case, as the severe needs of patients with DS have a major impact on parents and caregivers. There were several key issues. First, the company included caregiver utilities in the model in a way that when patients in the economic model died, the corresponding caregiver utility was also set to zero. Second, the model was built in R statistical software, resulting in transparency issues. Third, the company assumed the same percentage reduction for convulsive seizure days as was estimated for CSF. Fourth, during the final appraisal committee meeting, influential changes were made to the model that were not in line with the ERG's preferences (but were accepted by the appraisal committee). The company's revised and final incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) in line with committee preferences resulted in fenfluramine dominating cannabidiol. Fenfluramine was recommended as an add-on to other antiepileptic medicines for treating seizures associated with DS in people aged 2 years and older in the National Health Service (NHS).

Risk Factors for Brain Metastases in Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The use of prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients is controversial. Risk factors for brain metastasis (BM) development are largely lacking, hampering personalized treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the possible risk factors for BM in SCLC.We systematically searched the Pubmed database (1 January 1995 to 18 January 2021) according to the PRISMA guidelines. Eligibility criteria: studies reporting detailed BM data with an adequate sample size (randomized clinical trials [RCTs]: N ≥50; non-RCTs: N ≥100) in patients with SCLC. We summarized the reported risk factors and performed meta-analysis to estimate the pooled hazard ratios (HR) if enough qualified data (i.e., two or more studies; the same study type; the same analysis method; and HRs retrievable) were available. In total, 61/536 records were eligible (18 RCTs and 39 non-RCTs comprising 13,188 patients), in which 57 factors were reported. Ten factors qualified BM data for meta-analysis: Limited stage disease (LD) (HR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17-0.67; P = 0.002) and older age (≥65) (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.54-0.92; P = 0.01) were associated with less BM; A higher T stage (≥T3) (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.16-2.56; P = 0.007) was a significant risk factor for BM. Male sex (HR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.99-1.54; P = 0.06) tended to be a risk factor, and better PS (0-1) (HR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.42-1.02; P = 0.06) tended to have less BM. Smoking, thoracic radiotherapy dose were not significant (P >0.05). PCI significantly decreased BM (P <0.001), but did not improve OS in ED-SCLC (P = 0.81). A higher PCI dose did not improve OS (P = 0.11). The impact on BM was conflicting between Cox regression data (HR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.26-1.31; P = 0.20) and competing risk regression data (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55-0.99; P = 0.04). Compared to M0-M1a, M1b was a risk factor for OS (P = 0.01) in ED-SCLC, but not for BM (P = 0.19). As regular brain imaging is rarely performed, high-quality data is lacking. Other factors such as N-stage and blood biomarkers had no qualified data to perform meta-analysis. In conclusion, younger age, higher T stage, and ED are risk factors for BM, suggesting that PCI should be especially discussed in such cases. Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis and well-designed RCTs are needed to better identify more risk factors and further confirm our findings. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021228391, identifier CRD42021228391.

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic cranial irradiation in stage III non-small cell lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: In stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) reduces the brain metastases incidence and prolongs the progression-free survival without improving overall survival. PCI increases the risk of toxicity and is currently not adopted in routine care. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI compared with no PCI in stage III NSCLC from a Dutch societal perspective. METHODS: A cohort partitioned survival model was developed based on individual patient data from three randomized phase III trials (N = 670). Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were estimated over a lifetime time horizon. A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €80,000 per QALY was adopted. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to address parameter uncertainty and to explore what parameters had the greatest impact on the cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: PCI was more effective and costly (0.443 QALYs, €10,123) than no PCI, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €22,843 per QALY gained. The probability of PCI being cost-effective at a WTP threshold of €80,000 per QALY was 93%. The probability of PCI gaining three and six additional months of life were 76% and 56%. The scenario analysis adding durvalumab increased the ICER to €35,159 per QALY gained. Using alternative survival distributions had little impact on the ICER. Assuming fewer PCI fractions and excluding indirect costs decreased the ICER to €18,263 and €5554 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: PCI is cost-effective compared to no PCI in stage III NSCLC, and could therefore, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, be considered in routine care.

Mogamulizumab for Previously Treated Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Kyowa Kirin) of mogamulizumab (Poteligeo®), as part of the single technology appraisal process, to submit evidence for its clinical and cost-effectiveness for previously treated mycosis fungoides (MF) and Sézary syndrome (SS). Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre, was commissioned to act as the independent evidence review group (ERG). This paper summarises the company submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. Based on a systematic literature review, one randomised controlled trial, MAVORIC, was identified showing favourable results in patients with MF and SS. However, MAVORIC compared mogamulizumab to vorinostat, which is not standard care in the NHS, and there is uncertainty due to the study design, specifically crossover of patients. Based on a "naïve comparison of results from the vorinostat arm of the MAVORIC study and the physician's choice arm (methotrexate or bexarotene i.e. United Kingdom [UK] standard treatments) of the ALCANZA study as well as comparison to Phase II bexarotene data", the company considered vorinostat to be "a reasonable proxy for current standard of care in the NHS". The ERG considered, based on the limited data available, that the comparability of vorinostat (MAVORIC) and physician's choice (ALCANZA) could not be established. In response to the Appraisal Consultation Document, the company provided an unanchored matched adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) of mogamulizumab with UK standard care by analysing Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. However, given the high risk of bias of an unanchored MAIC, these results needed to be regarded with a considerable degree of caution. The economic analysis suffered from uncertainty because there was no trial evidence on the comparator in the England and Wales National Health Service (NHS), and it was unclear to what extent the trial (MAVORIC) comparator (vorinostat) was comparable to standard care, referred to as established clinical management (ECM) in the NHS. The evidence for overall survival had not reached maturity and was confounded by treatment switching, for which different crossover adjustment methods produced large variations in life years. Caregiver utilities were applied in the analysis, but there was a lack of guidance on their application and whether these were indicated in this appraisal. After consultation, the company updated the economic analysis with the MAIC. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing mogamulizumab against ECM were (depending on whether the HES or MAVORIC comparison were used) £31,030 or £32,634 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained according to the company's base case and £38,274 or £80,555 per QALY gained according to the ERG's base case. NICE did not recommend mogamulizumab for treating MF or SS in adults who have had at least one previous systemic treatment. This decision was subsequently appealed, and an appeal decision has been reached.

Association of different fractionation schedules for prophylactic cranial irradiation with toxicity and brain metastases-free survival in stage III non-small cell lung cancer: A pooled analysis of individual patient data from three randomized trials.

We assessed the impact of different PCI fractionation schedules (30 Gy in 10 versus 15 fractions) on brain metastases-free survival (BMFS) and toxicity in stage III NSCLC. Our results suggest that 30 Gy in 10 fractions is associated with increased toxicity, while no conclusive evidence of improving BMFS was seen with this schedule.

Individual patient data meta-analysis of prophylactic cranial irradiation in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was compared to observation in several randomized trials (RCTs), and a reduction greater than 50% was shown regarding the incidence of brain metastases (BM). However, none of these studies showed an improvement of overall survival (OS), possibly related to relatively small sample sizes and short follow-up. The aim of this meta-analysis was therefore to assess the impact of PCI on long term OS for stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared to observation based on the pooled updated individual patient RCT data. METHODS: Seven RCTs were eligible, and data from the four most recent trials (924 patients) could be retrieved. The log-rank observed minus expected number of events and its variance were used to calculate individual and overall pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) with a fixed effects model. Inter-trial heterogeneity was studied using the I2 test. In addition, the 5-year absolute survival difference between arms was calculated for all endpoints. The pre-specified toxicities were reported descriptively. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 97 months (74-108). Compared to observation, no statistically significant impact of PCI on OS was observed (HR 0.90 [0.76-1.07] p = 0.23, 5-year absolute difference 1.8% [-5.2-8.8]). PCI significantly prolonged progression-free survival (HR 0.77 [0.66-0.91] p = 0.002) and BM-free survival (HR 0.82 [0.69-0.97] p = 0.02). The number of patients with high-grade (≥3) toxicity was 6.4% (21/330) for PCI. CONCLUSION: No OS benefit by PCI was observed, but PCI prolonged the progression-free survival and BM-free survival at an increased risk of late memory impairment and fatigue.

Lenalidomide with Rituximab for Previously Treated Follicular Lymphoma and Marginal Zone Lymphoma: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Celgene) of lenalidomide (Revlimid®), as part of the Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, to submit evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lenalidomide in combination with rituximab (MabThera®), together referred to as R2, for the treatment of adults with treated follicular lymphoma (FL) or marginal zone lymphoma (MZL). Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre+, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarises the company submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review on the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations, and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. The CS included one relevant study, for the comparison of R2 versus rituximab monotherapy (R-mono): the AUGMENT trial. In addition, the company performed an unanchored indirect comparison of R2 versus rituximab combined with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP) and rituximab combined with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CVP), using data for R2 from the AUGMENT trial and pooled data for R-CHOP/R-CVP from the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (HMRN) database. During the STA process, the company provided an addendum containing evidence on only the FL population, in line with the marketing authorisation obtained at that time, which did not include MZL. The probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) presented by the company were £27,768 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for R2 versus R-CHOP, £41,602 per QALY gained for R2 versus R-CVP, and £23,412 per QALY gained for R2 versus R-mono. The ERG's concerns included the validity of the unanchored comparison, the unavailability of a state transition model to verify the outcomes of the partitioned survival model, substantial uncertainty in survival curves, and potential over-estimation of utility values. The revised ERG base case resulted in ICERs ranging from £16,874 to £44,888 per QALY gained for R2 versus R-CHOP, from £23,135 to £59,810 per QALY gained for R2 versus R-CVP, and from £18,779 to £27,156 per QALY gained for R2 versus R-mono. Substantial uncertainty remained around these ranges. NICE recommended R2 within its marketing authorisation, as an option for previously treated FL (grade 1-3A) in adults, contingent on the company providing lenalidomide according to the commercial arrangement.

Cannabidiol for Adjuvant Treatment of Seizures Associated with Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome and Dravet Syndrome: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

GW Research Ltd. provided two separate, but similar, submissions to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cannabidiol (CBD) 10 mg/kg/day, trade name Epidyolex®, for the adjunctive treatment of seizures associated with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) and Dravet syndrome (DS). This paper highlights important methodological issues related to the company submissions, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) reports, and the subsequent development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee (AC) for the use of CBD. The company identified four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of CBD (GWPCARE1 and GWPCARE2 for DS, and GWPCARE3 and GWPCARE4 for LGS) and an ongoing open-label extension study (GWPCARE5) as relevant to both submissions. In these RCTs, CBD in addition to current clinical management (CCM) was compared to CCM without CBD (i.e. CCM plus placebo). GWPCARE2 and GWPCARE3 were three-arm studies and compared two dosages of CBD (10 mg/kg/day and 20 mg/kg/day) in addition to CCM and CCM plus placebo. GWPCARE1 and GWPCARE4 compared CBD (20 mg/kg/day) in addition to CCM and CCM plus placebo. Both DS patients in GWPCARE2 and LGS patients in GWPCARE3 who received 10 mg/kg/day CBD in addition to CCM achieved better seizure frequency outcomes than those who received CCM plus placebo. In the company's base case, use of CBD for LGS patients resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £31,107 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and, for DS patients, £36,046 per QALY gained versus CCM. The ERG considered that these ICERs were extremely uncertain and suffered from validity issues concerning model structure (e.g. patients receiving CCM moved back to baseline drop seizure frequency), input (e.g. inclusion of caregivers' QALYs), and transparency issues (e.g. hidden worksheets and coding in Visual Basic for Applications), and hence incorporated adjustments to the original base case which increased the ICERs. During the process, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) licence granted marketing authorisation for CBD only in conjunction with clobazam. Hence, the company provided evidence from this subgroup in an additional submission, which resulted in an ICER of £33,721 per QALY gained for LGS and an ICER of £32,471 per QALY gained for DS. In this submission and clarifications, the ERG was able to verify and validate most of the company's responses to the ERG's concerns. However, some issues remained regarding the face validity of model assumptions on patient pathways after treatment discontinuation. Finally, the AC recommended CBD with clobazam as an option for treating seizures associated with LGS and DS in patients aged 2 years and older only if (1) the frequency of drop seizures is checked every 6 months and CBD is stopped if the frequency has not fallen by at least 30% compared with 6 months before starting treatment and (2) the company provides CBD according to the commercial arrangement.

Risk factors for neurocognitive decline in lung cancer patients treated with prophylactic cranial irradiation: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) reduces brain metastasis incidence in lung cancer, however with risk of neurocognitive decline. Nevertheless, risk factors for neurocognitive decline after PCI remain unclear. METHODS: We systematically reviewed the PubMed database according to the PRISMA guideline. Inclusion criteria were: randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational/single arm trials evaluating PCI, including ≥20 patients, reporting neurocognitive test results for lung cancer. Primary aim: evaluate risk factors associated with neurocognitive decline after PCI. RESULTS: Twenty records were eligible (8 different RCTs, 8 observational studies), including 3553 patients in total (858 NSCLC, 2695 SCLC) of which 73.6% received PCI. Incidence of mild/moderate cognitive decline after PCI varied from 8 to 89% (grading not always provided); for those without PCI, this was 3.4-42%. Interestingly, 23-95% had baseline cognitive impairment. Risk factors were often not reported. In one trial, both age (>60 years) and higher PCI dose (36 Gy) including twice-daily PCI were associated with a higher risk of cognitive decline. In one trial, white matter abnormalities were more frequent in the concurrent or sandwiched PCI arm, but without significant neuropsychological differences. One trial identified hippocampal sparing PCI to limit the neurocognitive toxicities of PCI and another reported an association between hippocampal dose volume effects and memory decline. As neurocognition was a secondary endpoint in most RCTs, and was assessed by various instruments with often poor/moderate compliance, high-quality data is lacking. CONCLUSIONS: Age, PCI dose, regimen and timing might be associated with cognitive impairment after PCI in lung cancer patients, but high-quality data is lacking. Future PCI trials should collect and evaluate possible risk factors systematically.

Fruit consumption and the risk of bladder cancer: A pooled analysis by the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants Study.

While the association between fruit consumption and bladder cancer risk has been extensively reported, studies have had inadequate statistical power to investigate associations between types of fruit and bladder cancer risk satisfactorily. Fruit consumption in relation to bladder cancer risk was investigated by pooling individual data from 13 cohort studies. Cox regression models with attained age as time scale were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for intakes of total fruit and citrus fruits, soft fruits, stone fruits, tropical fruits, pome fruits and fruit products. Analyses were stratified by sex, smoking status and bladder cancer subtype. During on average 11.2 years of follow-up, 2836 individuals developed incident bladder cancer. Increasing fruit consumption (by 100 g/day) was inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer in women (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.85-0.99). Although in women the association with fruit consumption was most evident for higher-risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC; HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.56-0.92), the test for heterogeneity by bladder cancer subtype was nonsignificant (P-heterogeneity = .14). Increasing fruit consumption (by 100 g/day) was not associated with bladder cancer risk in men (HR = 0.99; 95% CI 0.94-1.03), never smokers (HR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.88-1.05), former smokers (HR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.92-1.05) or current smokers (HR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.89-1.01). The consumption of any type of fruit was not found to be associated with bladder cancer risk (P values > .05). Our study supports no evidence that the consumption of specific types of fruit reduces the risk of bladder cancer. However, increasing total fruit consumption may reduce bladder cancer risk in women.

An inverse association between the Mediterranean diet and bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of 13 cohort studies.

PURPOSE: The role of diet in bladder carcinogenesis has yet to be established. To date most studies have investigated dietary components individually, rather than as dietary patterns, which may provide stronger evidence for any influence of diet on bladder carcinogenesis. The Mediterranean diet has been associated with many health benefits, but few studies have investigated its association with bladder cancer risk. METHODS: We investigated the potential association between the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) and risk of developing bladder cancer by pooling 13 prospective cohort studies included in the BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) study and applying a Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Dietary data from 646,222 study participants, including 3639 incident bladder cancer cases, were analysed. We observed an inverse association between Mediterranean diet and bladder cancer risk (HRhigh 0.85 [95% CI 0.77, 0.93]). When stratifying the results on non-muscle-invasive or muscle-invasive disease or sex the association remained similar and the HR estimate was consistently below 1.00 both for medium and high adherence to the Mediterranean diet. A consistent association was observed when disregarding fat or alcohol intake. CONCLUSION: We found evidence that adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with reduced risk of developing bladder cancer, suggesting a positive effect of the diet as a whole and not just one component.

Fluocinolone Acetonide Intravitreal Implant for Treating Recurrent Non-infectious Uveitis: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Alimera Sciences, the company manufacturing fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implant (FAc) 0.19 mg (tradename ILUVIEN®), to submit evidence on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of FAc for treating recurrent non-infectious uveitis. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre + , was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper contains a summary of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence submitted by the company, the ERG's critique on the submitted evidence, and the guidance issued by the NICE Appraisal Committee (AC). The company submission (CS) was mainly informed by the PSV-FAI-001 trial in which FAc was compared with (limited) current practice [(L)CP], which was not considered to be representative of UK clinical practice by the ERG. There was no comparison of FAc to any treatment listed in the final scope, and especially to the dexamethasone intravitreal implant (dexamethasone), which was considered to be a relevant comparator by the AC. The primary outcome of the PSV-FAI-001 was recurrence of uveitis in the treated eye. Most of the events for the primary outcome were imputed during the PSV-FAI-001 trial, which probably led to an overestimation of the number of recurrences of disease, and a biased estimate of the relative effectiveness of FAc versus (L)CP. Finally, the place of FAc in the treatment pathway was not clearly defined by the company. Substantial uncertainty surrounded the cost-effectiveness results due to the shortcomings of the clinical evidence. Additionally, the quality of life of patients was not measured during the PSV-FAI-001 trial and long-term effectiveness data of FAc were lacking. The ERG adjusted several issues identified in the CS and added dexamethasone as a comparator in the decision analytic model. The ERG presented multiple analyses as base-cases because several elements of the assessment remained uncertain. The fully incremental ERG results ranged from dexamethasone (extendedly) dominating FAc (when assuming a hazard ratio of 1 or 0.7 for dexamethasone versus FAc) to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £30,153 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for FAc versus (L)CP [when assuming a hazard ratio of 0.456 for dexamethasone versus (L)CP]. The ICER of FAc versus (L)CP ranged from £12,325 to £30,153 per QALY gained. After a second AC meeting where alternative company scenarios comparing FAc with dexamethasone were considered by the AC, the AC concluded that "the results of the company's analyses ranged from the fluocinolone acetonide implant being dominant (that is, it was more effective and costs less), to an ICER of £29,461 per QALY gained, and most of the ICERs were below £20,000 per QALY gained". Therefore, the AC recommended FAc as a cost-effective use of National Health Service (NHS) resources for treating recurrent non-infectious uveitis affecting the posterior segment of the eye in the final TA590 guidance (published July 2019).

Durvalumab for the Treatment of Locally Advanced, Unresectable, Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of the Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (AstraZeneca) of durvalumab (IMFINZITM) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of durvalumab for the treatment of patients with locally advanced, unresectable, stage III non-small cell lung cancer whose tumours express programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) on ≥ 1% of tumour cells and whose disease has not progressed after platinum-based chemoradiation therapy. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarises the company submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review on the clinical- and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations, and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. The CS included a systematic review that identified one randomised controlled trial, comparing durvalumab with SoC. Participants with tumours expressing PD-L1 on ≥ 1% of tumour cells accounted for approximately 40% of the total participants. In this subgroup, a benefit in progression-free survival (PFS) [hazard ratio (HR) 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31-0.63] and overall survival (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35-0.81) was reported. Adverse events were comparable between both treatments, but more serious adverse events were reported for durvalumab (64/213 [30%] vs. 18/90 [20%]). The ERG's concerns regarding the economic analysis included a likely overestimation of PFS for the durvalumab arm, the choice of timepoint for treatment waning, as well as the way treatment waning was incorporated in the model, and potential overestimation of utility values without applying an age- or treatment-related decrement. The revised ERG base-case resulted in a deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £50,238 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, with substantial remaining uncertainty. NICE recommended durvalumab as an option for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund only in a subpopulation (concurrent platinum-based chemoradiation therapy) with a commercially managed access agreement in place.

Pembrolizumab for Treating Relapsed or Refractory Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Merck Sharp & Dohme; MSD) of pembrolizumab (Keytruda®) to submit evidence of its clinical and cost effectiveness for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma (RRcHL) who did not respond to treatment with brentuximab vedotin. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Centre+, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a detailed review of the evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, based on the company's submission to NICE. According to the NICE scope, pembrolizumab was compared with single or combination chemotherapy. Comparisons were undertaken in two populations: patients who did and did not receive prior autologous stem cell transplant (autoSCT; populations 1 and 2, respectively). Despite it having been recommended by NICE in population 1 at the time the ERG received the company submission, nivolumab was not included as a comparator. No studies directly comparing pembrolizumab and its comparators were identified. One ongoing, single-arm study of the efficacy and safety of pembrolizumab (KEYNOTE-087) and one comparative observational study (Cheah et al., 2016) were used to inform the comparative effectiveness of pembrolizumab and standard of care (SoC), using indirect comparisons in both populations. Almost all analyses showed significant PFS and overall response rate benefits for pembrolizumab versus SoC, but due to being based on indirect comparison, were likely to contain systematic error. The economic evaluation therefore suffered from substantial uncertainty in any estimates of cost effectiveness. Furthermore, there was a lack of evidence on the uptake and timing of allogeneic stem cell transplant, and alternative assumptions had a significant impact on cost effectiveness. Immature survival data from KEYNOTE-087 exacerbated this issue and necessitated the use of alternative data sources for longer-term extrapolation of survival. Some issues identified in the company's analyses were amended by the ERG. The revised ERG deterministic base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios based on the company's second Appraisal Consultation Document response for pembrolizumab versus SoC (with a commercial access agreement) for populations 1 and 2 were £54,325 and £62,527 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. There was substantial uncertainty around these ICERs, especially in population 2. NICE did not recommend pembrolizumab as an option for treating RRcHL in population 1, but recommended pembrolizumab for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund in population 2.

Arsenic Trioxide for Treating Acute Promyelocytic Leukaemia: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Teva, the company manufacturing arsenic trioxide (ATO; tradename Trisenox®), to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of ATO for untreated and relapsed or refractory acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL). Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Center, was commissioned as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper presents a summary of the company submission (CS), the ERG's critical review of the clinical and cost effectiveness evidence in the CS, key methodological considerations and the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee (AC). The CS presented three randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two of these were trials in newly diagnosed APL (APL0406 and AML17) and the third trial was in patients with relapsed APL. Results from APL0406 showed that more people having AATO [ATO plus all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA)] were alive at 50 months compared with people having AIDA (ATRA in combination with idarubicin) (99% vs. 93%; p = 0.007). There was also a statistically significant lower cumulative incidence of relapse with AATO compared with AIDA at 50 months (2% vs. 14%; p = 0.001). At 4 years, results from AML17 showed a significant difference in event-free survival (91% vs. 70%; p = 0.002) favouring AATO but not in overall survival (93% vs. 89%; p = 0.250). The only trial presented for relapsed/refractory patients compared AATO with ATO, which was not a relevant comparison according to the NICE scope. The AC concluded that AATO was effective for untreated APL while for relapsed or refractory APL the effectiveness of ATO was considered uncertain and the long-term safety remains unexplored. In the CS base-case, AATO was less expensive (£31,088 saved) and more effective (2.546 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained) than AIDA and thus the dominating strategy for newly diagnosed low- to intermediate-risk APL. However, the ERG's critical assessment highlighted a number of concerns, including deviations from the NICE reference case and a lack of detailed description and justification of parameters and assumptions related to (the extrapolation of) treatment effectiveness. However, it was reassuring that AATO for untreated APL remained dominant in the ERG base-case, and that the worst-case scenario produced by the ERG resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £21,622. The AC concluded that although there was uncertainty in the model, it could recommend ATO for both untreated and relapsed or refractory APL.